Panama,
on the lookout for global growth
If the world economy grows 3.1
percent this year, probably Panama will have better trade with other countries.
The growth of 3.1% of the world
economy, a more robust percentage than in 2017, should benefit the Panamanian
economy as a service country; however, if it weakens, so will the results for
the country.
Earlier this year, the World Bank predicted that the world economy would grow
3.1%, however, organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have warned
that the global economy could have weakened more than expected due to trade
tensions between China and the United States.
Last month, the IMF lowered its
global growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 to 3.7%, against the 3.9% calculated
earlier. Meanwhile, the global economic outlook that the OECD draws is not very
encouraging. The OECD predicts that next year the global economy will begin a
slowdown as a result of the commercial tensions, basically, due to the tariff
dispute between the United States and China, the stricter financial conditions
and the impact of oil prices.
Increase
3.8 percent will grow Panama
this year, according to the forecasts of Indesa.
3.1% Panama's economy grew in
the first six months of this year.
The protagonists of this trade
war, China and the United States, do not escape from reality. AChina is
estimated to have GDP growth of 6.6% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019, one tenth less
than what was estimated in the previous report of the OECD.
In the American case, it will
be 2.9% this year and 2.7% next year. Both fall in 2020 to 6% and 2.1%,
respectively.
The president of the National
Council of Private Enterprise (Conep) of Panama, Severo Sousa, emphasizes that
to the extent that world markets have better economic climate, it is more
likely that Panama has a better trade with them for being a country globalized
and that exports mainly services. Olmedo Estrada, president of the Association
of Economists of Panama, agrees with these proposals, saying that while the
economies are beginning to recover globally, this is a good sign for countries
like Panama, which depend on the economies to improve their condition.
He explains that when economies
are growing very low, they do not have the resources to buy goods and services
from other countries. So if the economies of Central and South America begin to
grow, it means that they are in a healthy condition and have the resources to
buy goods and services from other countries.
If the growth of 3.1% is
achieved worldwide, a positive message is sent to the world and to those
countries that make strategic commercial alliances to increase economic
activities.
Perspectives
Although this year the
Panamanian economy has shown signs of weakening and could grow below 4%, the
outlook for 2019 is still above 5%, even close to 6%, explained the economist.
Estrada indicates that this is
due to the fact that this year, due to the strike of the workers of the
National Union of Construction Workers (Suntracs), they stopped producing close
to 900 million dollars and its impact on the economy has left negative numbers
this year. Reason why the estimated 5% will not be reached.
For the other year, it is
unknown what situations or phenomena may appear, but it is expected that
investments in mining, the development of ports, the Panama Canal, the
financial center and logistics that are marking very positive dynamics will
help in 2019 you have a strong and robust economy and with the prospect of
growing more.
